Most people on social media (and the left) are not too interested in what Trump does on tariffs. It doesn’t seem to raise the same questions and concerns about human rights that policies on immigration or DEI do.

But as a sign of the limits of and constraints on Trump’s power, as well as of conflicts within his coalition, Trump’s moves on tariffs are really important. And I know the left does care about that (the extent of Trump’s power.) Also, don’t forget: outside of (yet related to) slavery, the fight over tariffs was probably the most significant conflict in American politics in the nineteenth century.

In any event, Trump has repeatedly promised to impose across-the-board 25% tariffs tomorrow (February 1) on Canada and Mexico. Throughout the campaign, in fact, he promised to impose those tariffs on day one of his presidency. He didn’t do that. But here’s The Wall Street Journal reporting on what’s going on inside of Trumpworld about tomorrow’s promised announcement:

President Trump’s advisers are considering several offramps to avoid enacting the universal tariffs on Mexico and Canada that he had pledged, according to people familiar with the matter…

Lobbying by North American businesses and labor groups that have argued the across-the-board tariffs would snarl continental supply chains, drive up prices, and increase reliance on trade with adversarial regimes such as China and Venezuela.

…

Some officials are now concerned about using emergency powers for tariffs after a federal judge earlier this week temporarily blocked a White House Office of Management and Budget memo that sought to freeze federal grants and loans. The court said the order may have violated federal law requiring the president to spend funding approved by Congress.

The injunction on the OMB action has caused some White House officials to second guess their plans to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, said people familiar with planning. Policymakers don’t want to risk having an IEEPA action enjoined now, when they may potentially use it in the future on other countries.

…

Those efforts have coincided with an intense pressure campaign from American industries and unions reliant on supply chains that cross U.S. borders, including the automotive sector and steelworkers. This week, the United Steelworkers, a powerful union whose members helped elect Trump across the industrial Midwest, called on Trump to back away from across-the-board tariffs.

Behind closed doors, the steelworkers union has stressed the importance of Canadian oil to many of its members, pointing out that about 30,000 steelworkers are employed by oil refineries that use Canadian crude, oil that could be replaced by imports from other countries, including Venezuela, if Canadian oil becomes too expensive.

It’s not often noted, but one of Trump’s most common statements, particularly when he’s in doubt, is “we’ll see.” It’s not noted because it doesn’t fit with the idea of him as the colossus of our moment. But the truth is when it comes to the tariffs we don’t know what will happen. So…we’ll see.

Update (February 2, 9 am)

It looks like Trump is pulling the trigger on tariffs on goods from China, Canada, and Mexico, or at least is now set to do so on Tuesday. Some facts to keep it mind.

1. It’s almost impossible to imagine just how integrated the economies of the US, Canada, and Mexico actually are. This is not a simple case of agricultural commodities like avocados—which in the winter come almost exclusively from Mexico—going up in price. We’re talking about very complicated global assembly lines, where parts of parts of parts of parts go back and forth across the border before they are completely assembled into whatever the final product may be.

2. The Canadians have been preparing for a trade war for quite a while. Not only has the government said it would bailout or finance specific companies that are negatively affected by US tariffs, but it’s planned to target very specific sectors of the American economy in response. According to a Times report from January 17, three days before Trump was inaugurated, the Canadian government was already exploring, in response to possible tariffs, ways to impose “maximum political pain” on Trump’s base. More specifically, “The Canadian officials said their choice of goods was meant to be precisely targeted and aimed at political impact. They specifically want to focus on goods made in Republican or swing states, where the pain of tariffs, like pressure on jobs and the bottom lines of local businesses, would affect Trump allies.”

3. According to a report tonight in the Times, “When Mr. Trump imposed tariffs on China during his first term, economic studies found that most of those costs were passed on to American consumers — a scenario that is likely to play out once again. That could mean higher prices in grocery aisles, at car dealerships and at the pump.”

4. Trump’s executive order imposing the tariffs invokes an emergency presidential power that legal scholars have long been arguing about. Tonight, the Democratic leadership in Congress announced that it was going to seek to block Trump on just this question.

Long story short, this story is not over. It’s just getting started.