Stop freaking out about Pence
I really wish people would stop with the “if Trump steps down or is impeached, Pence takes over, and that’ll be really bad because he’s not just super right-wing in a consistent and serious way, but he’s also super effective and politically potent and powerful” line.
First of all, we have zero—as in no—evidence that Pence is a super effective political player. Long before Dick Cheney was in the Bush White House, he had demonstrated his political savvy and skills, on multiple occasions and in multiple institutions and venues. Not so, Pence.
Second, it makes no sense to think Pence is super effective and powerful, on the one hand, yet has simply suffered the unfortunate happenstance of being stymied by Trump. If Pence were such a great politico, he would be making his mastery felt, in spite of Trump. Nothing suggests that he has. As far as we know, the guy is just a standard right winger with a granite face. He may be really good at what he does, but before we freak out about him, let’s have a better sense of his political potency and efficacy.
Third, and most important, while I don’t, in the end, think Trump will be impeached or resign—but who knows, things are moving so fast, anything is possible, so I won’t say it’s out of the question—the focus on Pence as his successor somehow stepping in and picking up the conservative agenda where things left off before Trump took it off the rails, is wrongheaded. That’s just not how politics works. For two reasons.
First, it presumes a weirdly static model of things. Trump steps down, Pence steps up, and things go on as they would have had Trump never appeared on the scene. There’s no sense in that story of what effect Trump being pushed out would actually have on the GOP (their demoralization and internal sense of confusion and chaos) or the Dems or the left (their newfound sense of power). If Trump is pushed out, one side will feel terrified (yes, conservatives can be scared, too), the other will feel emboldened and powerful. Why do you think the GOP is sticking by Trump so much as it is? Because he’s delivered anything for them so far? He hasn’t. It’s because, having made their bed, they have no choice but to lie in it and hope against hope that they’ll somehow, at some point, get a good night’s sleep. Anyway, that’s what I mean by a static view of politics: everyone thinks that an event can happen without it transforming the political space in which it happens. That’s just not the way things work.
Second, it also takes a weirdly personalistic view of politics, which has always dogged analysts in this country, including people on the left. As if the story is all about Trump or all about Pence—Pence is smarter than Trump, so he’s scarier and will be more effective!—and not about the larger force field that gets activated or deactivated around them. Again, that’s not how politics works, anywhere.