1980 v. 2012

In 1980, women made up 49% of the electorate, and voted for Reagan over Carter by a one-point margin. In 2012, women made up 53% of the electorate, and voted for Obama over Romney by an 11-point margin.

In 1980, non-whites made up 12% of the electorate, and voted for Carter over Reagan by anywhere from a 20- to a 70-point margin. In 2012, nonwhites made up 28% of the electorate, and voted for Obama by anywhere from a 50- to a 90-point margin.

In 1980, under-30 voters made up 23% of the electorate, and split evenly between Reagan and Carter. In 2012, under-30 voters made up 19% of the electorate, and voted for Obama over Romney by a 23-point margin.

In 1980, union households made up 26% of the electorate, and voted for Carter over Reagan by a three-point margin. In 2012, union households made up 18% of the electorate, and voted for Obama over Romney by an 18-point margin.

In 1980, liberals made up 17% of the electorate and voted for Carter over Reagan by a 43-percent margin. In 2012, liberals made up 25% of the electorate and voted for Obama over Romney by a 75-point margin.

In 1980, moderates made up 46% of the electorate and voted for Reagan over Carter by a six-point margin. In 2012, moderates made up 41% of the electorate and voted for Obama over Romney by a 15-point margin.

In 1980, conservatives made up 28% of the electorate and voted for Reagan over Carter by a 50-point margin. In 2012, conservatives made up 35% of the electorate and voted for Romney over Obama by a 65-point margin.

Moral of the story: Trump’s defeat in 2016 is/was a foregone conclusion. And reverse the decline in union and younger voters.

6 Comments

  1. Graham Clark October 24, 2016 at 10:47 am | #

    And reverse the decline in union and younger voters.

    Yeah, but why would the people who will (probably) win this election ever want to do that? As things are now, they win. If they reversed decline in union and younger voters, they’d lose and some unserious person like Sanders would win.

  2. Rich Puchalsky October 25, 2016 at 7:17 am | #

    This kind of analysis is why the people turning out the vote had to present Trump as a completely new threat, unconnected to what has gone before. (As you have written in dozens of blog posts. I can’t stand commenting-to-agree but sometimes it kind of has to be done.) Only Trump the proto-fascist — not Trump the continuation of GOP policiy — could generate the turnout required.

    The story of the last part of the runup to the election is in large part the disappearance of the protest vote. Voting for Trump is in some ways and to some people a kind of protest: voting Libertarian or Green is usually a protest. As the election date nears most people predictably reconsider protest votes and we’re seeing all three drop.

  3. b. October 26, 2016 at 11:04 am | #

    In 1980, Reagan represented the radicalization of the “centrist” consensus and the militarization of “international relations”. In 2012, Obama pretended to not be Reagan Lite. In 2016, Clinton represents the radicalization of the “centrist” consensus and the militarization of “international relations.”

    What good are the votes if the voters don’t get a choice?

    In 2008, Obama ran a bellwether campaign pretending to not be establishment by “virtue” of race. In 2016, Clinton tried to run a bellwether campaign pretending to be a non-revolutionary “revolution” by virtue of gender.

    Trump’s nomination was a foregone conclusion, too. How else could Clinton ever get elected?

  4. jonnybutter October 28, 2016 at 5:08 pm | #

    I can’t stand commenting-to-agree but sometimes it kind of has to be done

    This is the most Rich P sentence ever ; ) Roll out the emojis!!

  5. Edward October 28, 2016 at 8:39 pm | #

    According to your figures, 101% of the electorate voted in 2012, no doubt because of rounding. I have to wonder how exactly the labels “liberal”, “moderate”, or “conservative” are defined. Do I fit in the “liberal” category? Some of the categories used above overlap.

  6. Billikin November 1, 2016 at 3:27 am | #

    My guess is that there is a typo for the percentage of liberals in 1980. The numbers don’t add up. 27% instead of 17%, I expect.

Leave a Reply to Graham Clark Cancel reply