1980 v. 2012
In 1980, women made up 49% of the electorate, and voted for Reagan over Carter by a one-point margin. In 2012, women made up 53% of the electorate, and voted for Obama over Romney by an 11-point margin.
In 1980, non-whites made up 12% of the electorate, and voted for Carter over Reagan by anywhere from a 20- to a 70-point margin. In 2012, nonwhites made up 28% of the electorate, and voted for Obama by anywhere from a 50- to a 90-point margin.
In 1980, under-30 voters made up 23% of the electorate, and split evenly between Reagan and Carter. In 2012, under-30 voters made up 19% of the electorate, and voted for Obama over Romney by a 23-point margin.
In 1980, union households made up 26% of the electorate, and voted for Carter over Reagan by a three-point margin. In 2012, union households made up 18% of the electorate, and voted for Obama over Romney by an 18-point margin.
In 1980, liberals made up 17% of the electorate and voted for Carter over Reagan by a 43-percent margin. In 2012, liberals made up 25% of the electorate and voted for Obama over Romney by a 75-point margin.
In 1980, moderates made up 46% of the electorate and voted for Reagan over Carter by a six-point margin. In 2012, moderates made up 41% of the electorate and voted for Obama over Romney by a 15-point margin.
In 1980, conservatives made up 28% of the electorate and voted for Reagan over Carter by a 50-point margin. In 2012, conservatives made up 35% of the electorate and voted for Romney over Obama by a 65-point margin.
Moral of the story: Trump’s defeat in 2016 is/was a foregone conclusion. And reverse the decline in union and younger voters.